Food system reform could limit warming to 1.85°C by mid-century, study finds

A decisive transformation of the global food system could significantly slow climate change, improve public health, and reduce poverty – even without accounting for the full energy transition – according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Published in Nature Food, the modeling study found that reforming how food is produced, traded, and consumed could limit global temperature rise to around 1.85°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, while also making food healthier, more affordable, and less damaging to biodiversity.

“Our study shows the great importance of the food system,” said Benjamin Bodirsky, researcher at PIK and lead author of the study. “If we resolutely transform this sector towards sustainability, we will not only significantly slow down global warming, but also move towards many other desirable goals.”

The research identified 23 concrete levers across the agri-food system and assessed their combined impact using PIK’s integrated modeling framework, centered on its MAgPIE agri-food system model. The analysis captured effects not only on emissions, but also on health outcomes, ecosystems, economic output, and social equity.

The levers ranged from dietary change – including reduced consumption of meat, dairy, and sugar, and higher intake of legumes, vegetables, fruits, nuts, and whole grains – to reductions in food waste, improved agricultural practices, and measures to address both hunger and overconsumption.

Several levers also focused on the economic structure of food systems, such as lower trade barriers, living wages for agricultural workers in low-income countries, and less capital-intensive production in high-income regions.

While each lever came with trade-offs, the study showed that combined action produced a clearly positive outcome across climate, health, and environmental indicators.

Dietary shifts played a central role in the model outcomes. The study built on the Planetary Health Diet, co-developed by PIK in 2019, which links improved nutrition with reduced environmental pressure.

Under the food system transformation scenario, diet-related health risks – including diabetes and cardiovascular disease – declined substantially, while overall food affordability improved. Nitrogen pollution also fell, easing pressure on soils, water, and ecosystems.

“Life expectancy will increase, nitrogen pollution will decrease, and global poverty will also decline slightly,” Bodirsky said.

Beyond climate and health, the study highlighted food system reform as a major opportunity for biodiversity conservation.

“The food system transformation is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity,” said Alexander Popp, head of PIK’s Land Use Transition Lab and co-author of the study. “By combining measures – from protecting biodiversity hotspots, to plant-based diets, to more diverse crop rotations and better structured landscapes – the pressure on biodiversity can be significantly reduced.”

Under the most ambitious scenario, damage to the biosphere effectively halted by mid-century, representing a major win for nature conservation.

The researchers also modeled an expanded sustainability pathway, in which food system reform was paired with changes beyond agriculture. These included lower population growth, faster decarbonization of energy systems, greater use of bioplastics, and more timber-based construction instead of steel and concrete.

In this broader scenario, the model showed a 38% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2050, and a 91% probability of staying below 2.0°C. Economic output increased significantly compared with the baseline scenario, while the number of people living in extreme poverty dropped by around 75%.

The authors stressed that the study did not prescribe specific policy tools, but instead aimed to clarify what levels of ambition are required to meet climate and sustainability goals.

“This work creates a positive vision for the future and quantifies the interdependencies,” said Hermann Lotze-Campen, head of PIK’s Climate Resilience department and co-author of the study. “With this holistic view – considering climate, health, environment, and social justice – we contribute to the growing debate on the future of our food.”