Systemiq report warns China’s food security strategy could cut soy imports 25% and reshape global trade

China’s food security strategy has begun to reshape expectations for global agricultural commodity markets, with new analysis from Systemiq suggesting the country’s import demand for key commodities could peak by 2030 before entering structural decline.

• Systemiq found China’s import demand for agricultural commodities could peak by 2030, with soy imports projected to fall by 25% as efficiency and policy shifts take effect.
• The report outlined a three-phase transition, with China expected to become a net food exporter by 2040 and a global leader in alternative proteins by 2050.
• Producer countries heavily reliant on Chinese demand, including Brazil, Argentina and the USA, could face falling export volumes, prices and revenues.

The consultation paper, developed in partnership with the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, set out a central hypothesis that China has begun applying the same system-level industrial strategy used in sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles to food and agriculture.

“For years China has been the engine of global agricultural demand, but recent climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions have exposed the vulnerability of that model. The new Five-Year Plan signals that Beijing has taken note, responding with characteristic resolve and embedding food security and sovereignty as a core strategic priority. Taken together, the indicators suggest China may be at Year 0 of a broader food system transformation: new food security legislation, state investment in fermentation infrastructure and the emergence of alternative protein clusters. Those who have watched China's previous industrial transitions know not to underestimate what could come next,” said Shenggen Fan, Chair Professor at China Agricultural University and leading expert on China’s agricultural policy.

Food security has been elevated to a strategic priority within China’s national policy framework, described as central to economic stability and national security. The report pointed to its inclusion alongside energy and finance in recent Five-Year Plans, alongside new legislation, state-backed investment in fermentation infrastructure and the emergence of alternative protein clusters.

For more than two decades, China has acted as a primary driver of global agricultural demand. The report suggested that this period may be ending, with climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and trade disputes exposing vulnerabilities in the country’s food system and prompting a shift toward greater domestic resilience.

“China's evolving food security agenda could trigger one of the most significant realignments in global agricultural markets this century. Our modelling indicates that by 2030, target-led optimisation could erase up to 25% of China's soy demand. Longer term, China's push into biomanufacturing and alternative proteins represents a fundamental reorientation of domestic food production,” said Christine Delivanis, Partner at Systemiq.

Systemiq’s analysis described the current moment as an early stage in a broader transformation, with signals indicating coordinated alignment of policy, capital and technology to reduce reliance on imports while strengthening domestic production capacity.

By 2030, the report projected that China’s import demand will have peaked and begun to fall, driven by efficiency gains and what it described as target-led optimization. Soybean imports alone were expected to decline by 25%, alongside reductions in imports of beef, poultry, dairy and eggs.

This shift carries significant implications for global trade flows. China currently accounts for 89% of Argentina’s soy exports, 71% of Brazil’s and 53% of exports from the USA. It also represents a major destination for beef exports from Argentina, Brazil and New Zealand.

“For producers in Brazil, Argentina and the USA, there is a real opportunity to diversify markets, raise traceability standards, and invest in productivity. For Europe's alternative protein and biomanufacturing industry, China's acceleration creates a compelling case to capture global market share before the competitive dynamics shift,” Delivanis added.

A sustained reduction in demand from China could therefore reduce export volumes while also placing downward pressure on prices and revenues for producer countries that have become structurally dependent on Chinese markets.

Looking further ahead, the report outlined a second phase by 2040, in which China could transition into a net exporter of several food categories, including poultry, dairy, eggs and aquatic products. This shift was linked to the anticipated growth of alternative proteins, with fermentation-derived and plant-based products projected to reach price parity with animal-based equivalents.

The emergence of Chinese food exports as a competitive force in global markets was described as a significant structural change, introducing a new source of supply in categories where China has historically been a major importer.

By 2050, the report outlined a third phase centered on biomanufacturing and cultivated meat technologies. It projected that alternative proteins could account for between 35% and 55% of China’s domestic animal protein demand, supported by advances that make cultivated meat commercially viable at scale.

In this scenario, China’s role in global protein markets would shift fundamentally, with the country becoming a leading supplier of alternative protein technologies and products.

The report also highlighted the implications for the alternative protein sector itself, noting that increased investment in fermentation infrastructure could reduce costs while intensifying competition. Companies operating in the space were advised to focus on accelerated innovation to remain competitive as the market evolves.

For agricultural producers, the analysis pointed to a need for strategic adaptation. Countries exposed to declining Chinese demand could strengthen resilience by improving productivity on existing farmland, advancing deforestation and conversion-free standards, and enhancing traceability systems.

Diversification of export markets was also identified as a key strategy, alongside caution around long-term investments that assume continued growth in Chinese demand.

The report described these changes as part of a broader reconfiguration of the global food system, driven by a combination of policy direction, technological innovation and shifting economic priorities within one of the world’s largest agricultural markets.