Tesco data shows plant-based mince undercuts meat as UK prices rise

The cost of making everyday meals with plant-based ingredients has fallen well below meat equivalents at the UK’s largest supermarket, as rising livestock and feed costs continue to drive food inflation.

An analysis by the Good Food Institute Europe found that preparing dishes such as spaghetti bolognese and meatballs using plant-based mince was on average 33% cheaper than using beef, lamb, or pork mince at Tesco.

• Plant-based mince and meatballs were up to 33% cheaper than meat equivalents at Tesco between January and March 2026
• Tesco reported plant-based mince demand rose nearly 25% year-on-year in February 2026
• Beef mince prices increased by up to 23% year-on-year, with wider meat and poultry prices also rising

The findings came as broader price pressures continued to affect UK households. Plant-based mince sold at Tesco was on average 13% cheaper than beef mince across the first three months of 2026, while plant-based meatballs were 41% less expensive than their meat counterparts.

Plant-based mince, commonly used in dishes such as spaghetti bolognese, chili con carne, and shepherd’s pie, was nearly a third cheaper than minced beef, lamb, and pork combined. However, the analysis noted that beef burgers remained 9% cheaper than plant-based alternatives.

Retail data suggested that consumer behavior was already shifting. Tesco reported in February 2026 that demand for plant-based mince had increased by nearly 25% over the previous year, indicating that shoppers may be responding to price pressures by exploring lower-cost protein options.

The price divergence has emerged alongside sustained increases in the cost of meat. According to data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, average supermarket beef prices rose by more than 10% in the week ending April 25 compared with the same period last year. Lean beef mince recorded a sharper increase of nearly 23%, while lamb prices rose by 5% and pork by 1.4%.

Poultry prices also climbed, increasing by 8% over the past year. Industry groups indicated that costs were likely to rise further, driven by higher expenses for fertilizer, feed, and energy used in poultry production. These pressures have been linked in part to disruption caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Additional analysis pointed to the broader financial implications for households. The Eating Better Alliance estimated that the average UK family could save around £550 per year (US$688), or approximately £10 per week (US$12.50), by adjusting shopping habits to include more lower-cost staples such as fruit, vegetables, beans, and pulses, while reducing purchases of higher-cost items including meat and sugary snacks.

Reducing red and processed meat consumption to levels aligned with the Planetary Health Diet could deliver savings of nearly £9 per week (US$11.25), or more than £460 annually (US$575). This level of consumption equates to eating one small steak, two sausages, or a portion of beef mince per week.

The same analysis found that increasing fruit and vegetable intake to the recommended five portions per day would add less than £4.50 per week (US$5.60) to household spending, or about £230 annually (US$288). Increasing consumption of beans and pulses from once a week to four times weekly would cost as little as £1.64 per week (US$2.05).

Separate economic data has highlighted the uneven impact of inflation across food categories. The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit reported that prices for foods affected by extreme weather, including beef, butter, milk, coffee, and chocolate, rose by an average of 15.6% last year, compared with 2.8% for other food and drink items. Although these products accounted for just 11% of the average shopping basket, they contributed nearly 40% of overall food price inflation.

At the production level, cost pressures have also intensified. Agricultural inflation was estimated at 7.6%, while farmgate prices declined by 6.5%, according to the Andersons Centre. Farmers have faced rising input costs, particularly for animal feed, after poor weather conditions reduced grass growth and forage availability, forcing greater reliance on more expensive cereal-based feed.

Linus Pardoe, Senior UK Programme Manager at the Good Food Institute Europe, said the combination of geopolitical disruption and agricultural pressures was feeding through to consumers.

“The Middle East crisis is beginning to stretch household budgets, with people searching for ways to keep the cost of food shopping down. Higher feed costs, caused partly because last year’s drought reduced grass growth, have exacerbated rising meat prices, and the ongoing disruption to fertiliser and fuel supplies will likely push prices higher still.

“As supply chains become increasingly volatile, the government should put plant-based options at the heart of its new food strategy and invest in opportunities to help farmers diversify their incomes by growing the crops used to make these foods.”