Systemiq: Alternative proteins could add US$120 billion a year to the EU economy by 2040

Alternative proteins could contribute an additional €111 billion (US$120 billion) a year to the European Union’s economy within 15 years if governments treated the sector as a strategic priority, according to a new analysis by consultancy Systemiq, supported by the Good Food Institute Europe.

Alternative proteins were projected to add €111 billion (US$120 billion) in annual gross value added to the EU economy by 2040 under a moderate policy support scenario.

The sector was estimated to support around 414,000 jobs across agriculture, manufacturing, science, and logistics within 15 years.

Public investment of €1.4 billion (US$1.5 billion) per year in research and scale-up infrastructure was identified as a key enabler of growth.

The report argued that plant-based foods, cell-cultivated products, and ingredients made through precision and biomass fermentation could form the basis of a major new industrial sector for Europe, comparable in economic scale to established industries such as wine. Under the modeled scenario, alternative proteins were expected to generate €111 billion (US$120 billion) in annual gross value added by 2040, once impacts across the full supply chain were included.

Rupert Simons, Partner at Systemiq, said the opportunity required relatively modest public backing to unlock substantial returns. “Alternative proteins are a growth opportunity for Europe,” he said. “With public investments of just €1.4 billion a year, the EU and its member states can increase food security, create jobs and add economic value in excess of €100 billion. We urge European leaders to recognise the potential of this industry and put in place the regulations and investment to support it.”

Systemiq’s analysis focused on what it described as a moderate policy support pathway, rather than a high-ambition scenario. In this case, alternative proteins were projected to meet around 10% of EU meat demand and 25% of dairy demand by 2040, as products improved in taste and price and regulatory processes became more predictable.

Beyond consumer-facing food products, the report emphasized the role of alternative proteins in stimulating demand across upstream and downstream industries. These included crop production, feedstocks, processing equipment, bioreactors, and manufacturing infrastructure, areas where Europe already had significant industrial capabilities. When these activities were included, the total domestic market opportunity was estimated at €79 billion (US$86 billion), a figure the report compared to Lithuania’s GDP in 2024.

Exports also featured prominently in the analysis. Systemiq estimated that alternative proteins and related value chains could support a €60 billion (US$65 billion) export market by 2040, positioning the EU as a global hub for advanced food biomanufacturing. The report noted that this level of trade was comparable to the EU’s current exports to South Korea.

Employment impacts were another central finding. Under the modeled scenario, the alternative protein sector was expected to support approximately 414,000 jobs within 15 years. These roles spanned arable agriculture, scientific research, manufacturing, equipment production, logistics, and marketing, drawing on skills linked to biotechnology, engineering, and advanced manufacturing.

Elena Walden, Research Lead at GFI Europe, said the figures showed how quickly the sector could scale if conditions were right. “These figures reveal that in just 15 years, alternative proteins have the potential to become a thriving European industry, reducing emissions from our food system while delivering tasty and nutritious products and creating opportunities for rural communities,” she said.

The report also examined how growth in alternative proteins could affect European agriculture, focusing specifically on arable farming. A larger plant-based sector was projected to more than double demand for crops such as peas, fava beans, lentils, and chickpeas used as food-grade ingredients, while fermentation-based production was expected to increase demand for sugar and starch crops, including sugar beet, as biofuel demand declined toward 2035.

At the same time, Systemiq estimated that the EU could reduce imports of soy for high-protein animal feed by around 2.6 million metric tons, while overall feed demand could fall by 23 million metric tons.

Walden said unlocking these benefits would depend on policy choices made now. “But to unlock these benefits, the EU must treat alternative proteins as a strategic priority,” she said. “Europe’s leaders need to modernise regulations so that innovative products can be brought to market while meeting the EU’s world-leading food safety requirements, and invest in the research and infrastructure needed to make these foods available to everyone.”

Systemiq concluded that the economic opportunity presented by alternative proteins was not automatic, but contingent on coordinated action on regulation, investment, and infrastructure over the coming years. With targeted public support, the report argued that alternative proteins could become a significant pillar of Europe’s economy by 2040.